The latest data from China's General Administration of Customs reveals a "volume up, price down" trend in China's log imports from New Zealand in the first half of 2025. During the period, China imported 9.28 million cubic meters of logs from New Zealand, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.8%. However, the total import value dropped by 3% to $1.133 billion.
Price analysis shows that, except for a 0.4% increase in May, the average monthly import prices remained lower than the same period last year. By the end of June, the average price of New Zealand logs exported to China had declined to $119 per cubic meter, down 3.8% year-on-year.
Market Factors Behind the Trend
Industry analysts attribute this divergence between volume and price to multiple factors:
- Supply-Side Pressures – Winter harvesting in New Zealand was affected by weather conditions, yet suppliers maintained stable shipments to retain market share.
- Weak Demand – China's ongoing real estate market adjustments, coupled with the traditional off-season for construction, led to cautious purchasing by timber processors.
- Price Adjustments – Consistently low FOB (Free on Board) prices reflect a rebalancing of supply and demand.
Recent Market Developments
New Zealand exporters report new shifts in trade dynamics:
- Weekly log shipments to China have declined by ~5% since June.
- Inventory turnover at major Chinese ports has extended to ~45 days, up by 7 days YoY.
- Buyers are negotiating lower prices, with some transactions falling below the $115/m³ threshold.
Outlook for H2 2025
Market recovery is unlikely before New Zealand's spring harvest season (September-November). However, analysts expect a gradual rebound in demand by Q3's end, supported by China's urbanization push and social housing projects.
Key indicators to watch:
- China's infrastructure investment data (August)
- New Zealand's forestry production forecast (September)
These factors will shape the log import market in the second half of 2025.
