The North American imported lumber market is currently experiencing notably weak demand, yet prices remain relatively stable. Grade FAS 4/8 Red Oak, for instance, continues to trade at high levels above RMB 9,000 per cubic meter .
Price Resilience Amidst Market Slump
Since the beginning of 2025, demand for imported North American lumber has remained generally sluggish. However, FAS 4/8-inch Red Oak prices have consistently stayed above RMB 9,000 per cubic meter, presenting an unusual "price increase with volume decline" phenomenon .
Industry analysis indicates that rising import costs are the core reason for price firmness, with many traders now operating at a loss . Market monitoring data shows that as US-China tariff tensions escalated in 2025, prices for thick Red Oak lumber continued climbing. FAS 8/4-inch grades saw nearly 30% price increases compared to the same period in 2024, approaching the RMB 10,000 threshold while maintaining levels above RMB 9,000 .
Import costs for North American lumber have risen approximately 30%, attributed to RMB depreciation and ongoing trade tensions . Global shipping disruptions have further compounded cost pressures. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven international oil prices above $118 per barrel, while freight rates from key shipping routes have surged dramatically. Container shipping comprehensive index (SCFI) rose 35% in a single week, with log freight from New Zealand to China increasing from $27-28 to $31-33 per cubic meter .
Market Pressures Mount
Despite firm prices, traders face increasing pressure. Mid-tier market demand remains notably weak, with thin material prices essentially flat since the beginning of the year. Weak demand has led to inventory accumulation and cash flow difficulties, while rising import costs have compressed profits to razor-thin margins or losses .
Some traders report that current selling prices for Red Oak at RMB 9,000 per cubic meter already represent significant losses. Many prefer holding inventory in anticipation of market recovery rather than selling at even lower prices, which has provided some price support .
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, North American lumber market participants believe Red Oak prices will maintain high levels in the short term, though weak demand may limit further increases . If North American log supply conditions do not improve and import costs remain high, Red Oak prices are unlikely to decline. However, if demand weakness persists, traders' operational pressures will continue mounting, potentially triggering a new round of market consolidation .
Footnote (Data Sources)
The information presented in this report is synthesized from market analysis published by China Timber Network, China Wood Information Network, and timber industry media including Yuzhu Timber and Wood369 . Additional context on logistics costs is drawn from industry analysis by Wood Data and China Logistics Information Center . Market observations and trader commentary reflect conditions reported by industry participants in Guangdong and other major Chinese timber distribution centers.
