Data from Roslesinforg, Russia's federal forestry monitoring agency, shows that log production fell 18.4% year-on-year in January, reaching just 6.3639 million cubic meters.
This follows a warning from Mikhail Yurin, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, who stated that the industry has entered a "downward trend" and that production could fall by 20% to 30% in 2026. The January figures are trending toward the lower end of this forecast.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Russia's timber export revenue has dropped by more than 20%, falling from $12.5 billion in 2021 to $9.8 billion last year. The loss of the European market-which previously accounted for over $3 billion in annual exports-has yet to be compensated. While China has absorbed some of the volume, shipping costs to China rose 16% last year, further eroding profitability.
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has officially declared Russia's timber crisis as systemic, noting that commercial logging volumes have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the war. Approximately 90% of imported logging equipment currently operating in Russia is expected to cease functioning by 2028, with manufacturers such as John Deere, Ponsse, and Komatsu Forest having exited the market. Domestic machinery producers are unable to fill this gap.
In response to these pressures, Segezha Group, one of Russia's largest forestry companies, has announced plans to establish a manufacturing and logistics center in the Shanghai Lingang Special Economic Zone. Construction is expected to begin this year, marking the largest overseas expansion by a Russian timber producer since Western markets closed.
Footnote (Data Sources)
The data and analysis presented in this report are compiled from official Russian forestry agency statistics, statements from the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, assessments from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, and industry reporting from sources including Roslesinforg, TASS, WoodCentral, and Lesprom. Information on Segezha Group's Shanghai investment is based on announcements from the company and coverage by Russian and Chinese industry media.
