A senior Russian official has warned that the country's timber industry is on a clear downward trajectory, with production potentially contracting by 20-30% in 2026 under a worst-case scenario. This forecast highlights the severe and compounding pressures from tightening international sanctions, high domestic interest rates, and a strong national currency.
The official stated that a significant output decline is already anticipated for 2025. Furthermore, should the geopolitical situation continue to deteriorate, this negative trend is expected to persist and intensify through 2026 and 2027.
This grim outlook aligns with earlier assessments that identified wood processing as one of the weakest segments within Russian industry. The sector has been grappling with a sharp reduction in export revenues, restricted access to traditional markets, and a domestic logistics crisis that has driven transportation costs up by approximately 50%, contributing to the closure of numerous sawmills.
The projected deep production cut underscores the profound structural challenges facing Russia's forestry sector. It signals potential long-term implications for both the domestic industry and its role in the global timber supply chain, particularly for markets that have increased their reliance on Russian wood in recent years.
