Over the past four years, China's birch timber imports have undergone significant structural changes. According to the latest customs data, market demand has shown a sustained contraction, with imports declining from a peak of 2.583 million cubic meters in 2021 to 1.687 million cubic meters in 2024-a cumulative drop of 34.68%. This downward trend has continued into 2025, with total imports reaching only 801,900 cubic meters in the first five months, down 8.98% year-on-year, indicating no signs of market recovery.
As China's dominant birch supplier, Russia holds a critical position in the market. In 2024, Russian birch accounted for 95.8% of China's total imports, creating near-total supply dependency. However, as China's overall demand has weakened, Russia's birch exports to China have also declined, falling from 2.322 million cubic meters in 2021 to 1.617 million cubic meters in 2024. Data from January to May 2025 shows an additional 8.1% year-on-year drop, reflecting a simultaneous contraction on both ends of the supply chain.
A deeper analysis reveals multiple factors driving this trend:
On the demand side, the continued downturn in traditional timber-consuming industries is a major contributor. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in 2024, China's real estate development investment fell by 12.3% year-on-year, while new construction starts dropped by 18.7%, directly reducing demand for birch-based products like construction formwork. The furniture manufacturing industry also faces challenges, with the China National Furniture Association reporting three consecutive years of sub-2% growth in total output value and a 15.6% year-on-year decline in export orders in the first four months of 2025. This downstream slump has rippled upstream, extending timber traders' inventory turnover days from 45 in 2021 to 68 currently, significantly dampening procurement enthusiasm.
On the supply side, Russia's domestic industry struggles pose serious constraints. The country's timber sector, which relies on seasonal production cycles, is grappling with the severe impacts of climate change. Traditionally, the intense cold from December to March forms a frozen ground surface ideal for logging, with Siberia's -30 to -40°C temperatures creating solid working conditions. However, the 2024-2025 winter brought record warmth to European Russia, with Siberia experiencing temperatures 4-6°C above average, leaving logging areas with unstable ground and muddy transport routes. Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources reported a 23% year-on-year decline in logging volume in Q1 2025, with timber transport efficiency dropping by nearly 40%.
This supply crisis has cascaded into processing. A report by the Russian Timber Industry Union found that in the first half of 2025, about 65% of sawmills in the northwest faced raw material shortages, operating at just 72% of capacity. Arkhangelsk Oblast, a key export hub to China, saw birch processing volumes drop by 28%, pushing order fulfillment rates to a historic low of 83%.
More alarmingly, multiple indicators suggest worsening supply constraints:
- Global climate models predict another El Niño winter in 2025-2026.
- The Russian government plans to raise log export tariffs starting Q3 2025.
- Timber freight costs on the China-Europe Railway Express have surged by 18% year-on-year.
- Insufficient infrastructure investment in Russia has left 42% of forest roads in disrepair.
Faced with these challenges, China's timber industry is actively seeking solutions. Some leading companies are turning to alternative suppliers in Canada and Finland, with North American birch imports skyrocketing by 217% year-on-year in early 2025. Meanwhile, timber processing hubs in Shandong and Jiangsu are accelerating the shift to "plastic-for-wood" alternatives, with polymer composite production capacity expected to grow by 30% by year-end. The China National Forest Products Industry Association's recent whitepaper recommends diversifying import sources to reduce single-supplier reliance below 60% while expanding fast-growing plantation projects.
This supply chain crisis-fueled by climate anomalies, industrial cycles, and geopolitical factors-is forcing China's timber industry into deep structural adjustments. Future market trends will hinge on multiple variables, including Russia's production recovery, alternative material development, and broader economic conditions. Industry experts warn that if current trends persist, Russia's 2025 birch exports to China could fall below 1.5 million cubic meters, hitting a decade-low.
