A recent report from New Zealand's Agri HQ indicates that China's log import market may have bottomed out, with demand expected to gradually recover in the coming months.
The report highlights that log supplies from New Zealand to major Chinese ports continue to tighten, increasing pressure on traders in a market still affected by the prolonged U.S.-China trade war and exposing vulnerabilities in the supply chain. While early signs of demand recovery have emerged, the rebound is expected to be modest, with a substantial rise in China's wholesale log prices needed to fully revitalize market activity.
Meanwhile, New Zealand is exploring opportunities from a free trade agreement with India to reduce reliance on China. However, the report notes that India accounts for less than 5% of the market share, making it difficult to significantly shift the current trade dynamics dominated by China in the short term.
New Zealand's Minister of Agriculture, Todd McClay, has previously emphasized that deepening the strategic partnership with China remains a priority, aligning with the tone of recent high-level visits focused on economic and trade cooperation.
From China's perspective, as one of the world's largest log importers, market recovery will depend on adjustments to domestic pricing mechanisms and diversified supply strategies to stabilize the timber trade relationship with New Zealand.
